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President Trump and members of Congress failed to heed repeated early warnings from U.S. intelligence agencies about the outbreak's potential severity, according to a blockbuster story in The Washington Post. Despite CIA and national intelligence reports from January and February that the coronavirus had the potential to sweep the globe, Trump continued to trust (and tweet) the Chinese government's false claims that its spread was being controlled. "The system was blinking red," a U.S. official told The Post. "They just couldn't get him to do anything about it."
The crisis is now upon us, with more than 70 million Americans living under stay-at-home orders in California, New York and Illinois, and signs that other states may be preparing to follow suit.
The U.S. has seen more than 260 deaths and 22,000 confirmed cases of the virus — climbing fast – but the true number of infections is almost certainly much higher due to a shortage of tests. Health officials in New York, California and other hard-hit parts of the country are restricting coronavirus testing to health-care workers and people who are hospitalized, signaling "the battle to contain the virus is lost." In frustration, some people have started buying fraudulent "home-test kits," prompting warnings from the FDA.
The virus has infected Americans from every walk of life — most severely the immunocompromised and elderly, but also athletes, entertainers, lawmakers and, as of Friday, an employee in the office of Vice President Pence, who leads the White House coronavirus task force and will be tested for the disease. (See the reader question section below for worrying signs that young Americans are falling seriously ill.)
The combination of mass infections and mass quarantines are threatening an economic crisis unprecedented in modern history. Some financial analysts predict the economy will shrink at an annual rate of 14 percent to 30 percent in the next few months. Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects the government to report about 3 million newly unemployed Americans next week – "more than four times the record high set in the depths of the 1982 recession."
Civic life is being shuttered across the United States. Hospitals are warning of shortages or closures without emergency aid. At least 73 senior care centers in 22 states have reported infections. Many local court systems have effectively shut down, firefighters are calling in sick, and the mayor of Dayton is worried the city will soon lack funds to pick up the trash.
Trump's hotel and resort business has been hit hard in the chaos. His prized Mar-a-Lago Club has been effectively shuttered by order of Florida's governor. The president has touted a gargantuan $1 trillion-plus stimulus bill being hammered out in Congress, even as he resists pleas for the federal government to send medical supplies and other aid directly to the states. The U.S. government is "not a shipping clerk," Trump told reporters this week.
Experts worry that the twin medical and economic crises could last far longer than we are prepared for, even into November's national election, forcing officials to contemplate the hugely difficult and expensive possibility of an entire nation voting by mail.
As he was during the outbreak's early spread in January, Trump remains upbeat despite most evidence. At a news conference late this week he promised: "We're going to be a rocket ship as soon as this thing gets solved."
Correction: Friday's newsletter incorrectly said Illinois had been placed under lockdown. The governor issued a statewide stay-at-home order, which is different. |
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Your questions, answered
"I have seen reports on the fraction of cases that result in death as a function of age. But what is the fraction of severe reaction (e.g. number of cases that require hospitalization) as a function of age?" — Mark Sears, New Mexico
This question gets at an extremely important new finding about which age groups can become seriously ill from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. (Spoiler: almost all of them.)
Early data from China suggested only elderly people got very sick from the disease — a misconception that has encouraged some millennials to go partying during quarantines, and led President Trump to tell Americans on March 15: "The young people and people of good health, and groups of people, just are not strongly affected" by the virus.
A newly released study suggests this thinking is dangerously false, as The Post reported this week. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention examined more than 4,000 covid-19 cases in the United States and found that, while 80 percent of deaths were people 65 or older, "the percentage with more moderate or severe disease requiring hospitalization is more evenly distributed between the old and the young."
The specific numbers Mark is looking for can be found in the CDC report, specifically this paragraph:
Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 36% were aged 65—84 years, 17% were aged 55—64 years, 18% were 45—54 years, and 20% were aged 20—44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among people aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of people hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among people aged ≤19 years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years.
There's a lot more in the report if you want to dig in, or read our article about it. Keep in mind that scientists still have much to learn about the virus, and statistics can change from country to country, or week to week.
The important point is that many younger Americans do appear to be getting seriously ill from covid-19. Even those who aren't, such as teenagers, can spread the virus to people who are more at risk.
As the president said more recently than his March 15 comments: "We don't want them gathering, and I see they do gather, including on beaches and in restaurants, young people. They don't realize, and they're feeling invincible." |
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Live updates
Want to know more? Submit your question and The Post may answer it in a future story, live chat or newsletter. |
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Today's top reads
Find more stories, analysis and op-eds about the outbreak on our coronavirus page, including:
- A look inside the White House at Trump's 7 days as a 'wartime president'
- The case for giving every college student an automatic 'A'
- Pulitzer Prize winner Stephanie McCrummen's story from the desolate streets of New York
(Illustration by Mark Pernice for The Washington Post)
So long to selfie lines, political fundraisers and the dominance of mass transit.
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Opinion ● By Joseph Maguire, John Brennan, Michael Leiter, Matthew G. Olsen, Nicholas Rasmussen, Andrew Liepman, Geoffrey O'Connell, Michael, V. Hayden and James Clapper ● Read more »
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Ignorance is bliss
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